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EURUSD Price Analysis: Bears getting set for a fade above last week's highs

  • EURUSD will depend on the US yields following this week's CPI.
  • For now, the Euro is breaking last week's structure with eyes on last month's highs. 

EURUSD has moved up in the New York session as the greenback sinks some more for the month to a fresh low at 110.14. This has sent the euro through last week's highs with last month's high, 1.0093, now on the radar as the following analysis will illustrate.

EURUSD H1 chart

However, given the steep rise in the euro and the number of imbalances of price left behind, there are prospects of a move to the backside of the trendline for the immediate future. A break below 0.9975 could set off a cascade of stops into 0.9925. This would be the last defence for a move all the way back towards 0.9800. 

Meanwhile, all will come down to this week's inflation data from the US. Currently, the markets are of the mind that the US economy is slowing enough to allow the Federal Reserve to ease its rate-hiking pace and the ongoing speculation that China may ease COVID restrictions.

In this regard, the US 10-year yields will be an important feature in markets for the week ahead:

A break back into the trendline would be expected to see the US dollar rise and weigh on the euro.

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