EUR/USD: Rejected above key hurdle ahead of US Personal Spending data
|- Long-upper wick attached to the weekly candle is signaling bull exhaustion.
- EUR/USD will likely suffer a deeper drop if the US data blows past expectations.
- EUR/USD bulls need a weekly close above a falling trendline hurdle.
EUR/USD is looking heavy ahead of the key US data release.
The pair's weekly candle now has a long upper shadow, which is a telltale sign of buyers running out of steam above the resistance of the trendline falling from September 2018 and June 2019 highs.
The trendline resistance is currently seen at 1.1148. The pair had risen to a high of 1.1175 on Tuesday, but fell back below 1.1148 on the following day.
The pair made another attempt to scale the trendline hurdle on Thursday but failed. Similar price action was witnessed last week.
The repeated failure on the part of the bulls to force a convincing break above trendline has bolstered downside risks, which will likely materialize if the US data due today blows past expectations.
Focus on US data
The third-quarter gross domestic product is predicted to be unchanged at 2.1%. The number was revised upwards from the initial release of 1.9% to 2.1% last month. The GDP stood at 2.0% in the second quarter and 3.1% in the first quarter.
The final number rarely moves markets, unless there is a significant upward or downward change to first revision (2.1% in this case).
The GDP will be released at 13:30 GMT and Personal Spending, Personal Income and Fed's preferred measure of inflation – the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (Core PCE) will be released at 15:00 GMT.
Better-Than-Expected personal spending and Core PCE will validate the Fed's recent decision to pause rate cuts and send the dollar higher.
On the flip side, a big miss will likely fuel dollar sell-off. The outlook for EUR/USD will turn bullish only if the pair prints a weekly close above the trendline hurdle at 1.1148.
Technical levels
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.