EUR/USD - Focus on trend line hurdle & Zew survey, risk reversal remain negative
|The EUR/USD rose to 1.1828 on Monday following the last week’s repeated failure on the part of the bears to keep the pair below 1.1720 levels.
Daily chart
The daily chart above shows the spot has breached the triangle pattern on the higher side, although the rising trend line hurdle is still intact.
Focus on Zew survey
German Zew survey indices are expected to show a slight deterioration in the economic sentiment. A better-than-expected Zew survey would help EUR/USD take out the rising trend line hurdle. Meanwhile, weak data could yield a pullback to 1.1750 levels.
Risk reversal remains negative
The one-month 25-delta risk reversal registered a slight improvement on Monday to -0.138 from Friday’s print of -0.2.
However, the print is still negative, which means the demand for downside protection is still high.
A jump to positive territory, coupled with a break above the trend line hurdle on a EUR/USD chart would open doors for 1.20 [key psychological hurdle + max OI build up in 1.20 Call].
EUR/USD Technical Levels
FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik, “In the 4 hours chart, the pair has surpassed all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining upward traction, but still below the 100 SMA. Technical indicators in the mentioned time frame have eased partially from near overbought readings, but given that the price remains near its highs, chances remain towards the upside. August 11th daily high at 1.1846 is the immediate resistance, with a break above it favoring additional gains up to the mentioned 1.1909 yearly high and beyond.”
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