EUR: Consensus still seemingly bullish – ING
|Near-term, EUR/USD continues to test 1.160, though we see a sustained move higher as premature without softer US data, with range-bound trading likely to persist, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
More range-bound trading in the near-term
"We ran the following survey for our audience: where do you see EUR/USD ending 2026? 40% of the 105 respondents chose 1.20-1.25, which is in line with our call (1.22), 36% selected a stable 1.15-1.20 range and 18% expected depreciation to 1.10-1.15."
"Only 2% and 4%, respectively, selected appreciation beyond 1.25 or depreciation below 1.10. These figures are broadly in line with consensus, which sees EUR/USD at 1.21 at the end of 2026, whilst also confirming that general expectations are for capped volatility in EUR/USD next year."
"Back to current matters, EUR/USD has been attempting a break above 1.160, and while we are bullish on the pair into year-end, we admit a decisive move higher may be a bit premature. Undervaluation has been trimmed to 0.5% in our short-term fair value model estimates, and the dollar is expensive to sell from a carry perspective. In our view, some soft US data is needed before 1.170 becomes a realistic short-term target for EUR/USD. For now, we expect more range-bound trading."
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.