EUR/CHF to trade in a 0.9700-1.0000 range following SNB meeting – Credit Suisse
|In light of the recent events in financial markets, economists at Credit Suisse think the SNB will only hike 25 bps at the upcoming meeting. They expect EUR/CHF to trade in a 0.9700-1.000 range.
Hawkish SNB surprise becomes less likely
“Considering the recent turmoil in financial markets, the 25 bps SNB rate hike scenario seems the most likely. Given that the market also expects at least another 25 bps rate hike for the June meeting, it is difficult to construe an overly hawkish outcome that could strengthen the Franc significantly. We think EUR/CHF won't fall much in this scenario, and we can see the pair trading in a 0.9700-1.0000 range following the meeting.”
“We would expect EUR/CHF to fall towards 0.9600 in case of a 50 bps rate hike or even more towards 0.9500 if the SNB hikes 75bps.”
“In the no-hike scenario, we expect the franc to weaken and EUR/CHF to move back above parity, towards 1.0100.”
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