EM's to do fine over next weeks - BBH
|Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that the EM's initially benefitted from the FOMC decision, but softened into the weekend.
Key Quotes:
"One culprit was lower oil prices, as reports suggest an output deal is unlikely at the OPEC meeting this week in Algeria. But it wasn’t just EM, as the greenback closed firmer against the majors as well."
"We still believe that risk and EM should do fine over the next few weeks, as the Fed basically set a two-month window of steady rates."
"Looking at individual country risk, a cabinet shuffle in Poland is a good reminder about political risk. Israeli, Czech, and Colombian central banks are all expected to stand pat.
China provides its first snapshot of its manufacturing sector this week with PMI readings, while Korea will give the first reading for trade next weekend. Moody’s downgrade of Turkey to Ba1 is a reminder that country-specific risk remains in play."
"China Caixin September manufacturing PMI will be reported Friday, which is expected at 50.1 vs. 50.0 in August. Official September manufacturing PMI reading will be reported Saturday, which is expected at 50.5 vs. 50.4 in August. The economy stabilized in August, and so the September readings will be important to show this continuing. "
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