DXY: ISM services, payrolls next – OCBC
|Varied reaction in FX markets with open trade, growth-sensitive FX such as CNH, KRW, SGD, MYR and THB under some pressure post-tariff announcement. DXY was last seen at 102 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Mild bullish momentum on daily chart faded
"There is likely to be a period of negotiation and retaliatory responses between tariffed countries and the US. It may take a while before we see the final tariff outcome; but in the interim, we should continue to see divergent USD at play: with USD weaker vs G3 majors (EUR, JPY and GBP) but USD maintaining a bid tone vs AxJ FX. Safe-haven proxies such as gold, JPY and CHF continue to stay supported."
"Mild bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI fell. The pullback risk that we earlier flagged has played out. Resistance at 103.90/10 levels (21 DMA, 61.8% fibo retracement of Oct low to Jan high), 104.60 and 105 levels (50% fibo, 200 DMA). "
"Near term this week, focus on ISM services tonight and payrolls tomorrow. Another softer print may reinforce growth concerns in the US and undermine US equity sentiments. But looking out, growth ultimately matters. If US growth becomes weaker as a result of its own doing (i.e. higher tariffs, protectionist measures) while growth for the rest of the world continues to hold up, then the USD may end up weaker over time."
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