Dow September futures steady above 44,557 support as bulls eye 45,000 amid US–Japan trade optimism

Buoyed by President Trump's announcement of a US–Japan trade deal, Dow futures reclaimed key weekly POC at 44,557 and now set sights on micro‑4 at 44,872 and micro‑5 at 44,958

Price action overview

• Tuesday's pullback and rebound: YM1: Sep '25 Dow futures dipped from 44,557 but held just above the micro‑5 lower range at 44,417, reaffirming support and preventing a deeper sell‑off.

• Weekly Val & POC Retaken: Bulls re‑established control by reclaiming both the weekly value area low (VAL) and point of control (POC) at 44,557, then pushed price into a rising channel to finish the US session on a constructive note.

Key micro levels and trade signals

Following our MacroStructure dot connect Guide: Six Pillars to Supply & Demand Mastery, look for:

1. Long Entries at micro 1 (44,677) and micro 2 upper range (44,757) when price structure and entry signals align.

2. Intraday Targets set at the next three to five micro levels.

3. Current Reference Point: As of writing, September futures trade just above micro 3 (44,812). Staying above this level maintains the bullish bias.

Dow Futures price chart courtesy of TradingView | Analysis by MacroStructure dot connect

Targets and stop‑zones

• Upside targets:

  • Micro 4: 44,872

  • Micro 5: 44,958

• Support stops:

  • First support: 44,752 (micro 2)

  • Secondary base: 44,677 (micro 1)

• Central base zone: The gap between micro 1 upper (44,677) and micro 5 lower/POC (44,557) forms the core of the current trading range—maintaining both levels preserves the up‑channel structure.

Trading playbook

• Session start (Asian):

  • Confirm price remains within the established rising channel above 44,812.

  • Enter long on confirmed micro 1 or micro 2 signals, with tight initial stops just below those levels.

• Mid‑session adjustment:

  • Trail stops to breakeven once micro 4 is reached.

  • Scale out partial position at micro 4; let the remainder run toward micro 5.

• Risk events:

  • Fed Minutes (July 24): Potential volatility; consider reducing size ahead of release.

  • US–Japan Trade Developments: Any updates could spur additional moves—stay nimble.

Optimise your strategy by strictly adhering to the MacroStructure dot connect entry rules. Clear channels and confirmed structure alignment are essential before committing capital.

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading futures involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.