China: Economic recovery continued into Jan-Feb, upside risk to 1Q25 GDP growth – UOB Group
|China’s macroeconomic data turned out brighter than expected in Jan-Feb with industrial production, retail sales and urban fixed assets investment (FAI) above Bloomberg’s consensus forecasts. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly surged while loans data suggested weak demand persisting, UOB Group's Economist Ho Woei Chen notes.
Broad based improvement in industrial output, retail sales and investment
"Industrial production may fade in Mar as frontloading unraveled after two rounds of US’ tariffs (10% w.e.f. 4 Feb followed by another 10% w.e.f. 4 Mar). However, there is optimism over China’s success in the high-tech sector as well as more positive view on the government’s resolve to stabilise growth at 'around 5%' this year. On Sun (16 Mar), China issued a 30-point plan to boost consumption."
"To sustain the positive recovery momentum in Jan-Feb, stimulus will need to be stepped up to offset the impact from US’ tariffs and domestic challenges. The data in Jan-Feb suggests that China’s 1Q25 GDP growth may come close to the 5.4% y/y in 4Q24, compared to our expectation for a slowdown to 4.7% y/y and we expect the momentum to raise the full-year 2025 GDP growth to 4.7% compared to our previous forecast of 4.3%. This will be slightly below the official growth target."
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.