Canada: Inflation likely drop to 2.7% in August - NBF
|Next week in Canada, economic data to be released includes CPI, GDP and retail sales. According to National Bank of Canada analysts, the Core CPI in August remained at 1.9% (annual) and retail sales likely rebounded in July 0.3%.
Key Quotes:
“A lot of attention will be focused on the release of August’s CPI data. Gasoline prices dropped by 1.5% in the month, a soft print compared with historical norms for that time period. That retreat, coupled with an expected reversal in the price of air transportation following a 16.4% surge in July, should translate into a 0.2% decline for headline prices in August (m/m, not seasonally adjusted). This would lead to a three-tick drop of the 12-month rate to 2.7%. The annual rate for CPI-common, for its part, should remain unchanged at 1.9%.”
“We’ll also get information about economic activity in early Q3 thanks to July data. Headline retail sales may have resumed their upward trend in the month following a slight retreat in June. That said, lackluster auto sales and an above-trend increase in gasoline prices should translate into a steeper rate of growth for ex-auto sales. If a small increase in exports of factory goods is any guide, manufacturing shipments may have posted a slight increase in July following two very strong months. We’ll also keep an eye on the release of international securities transactions for July and existing home sales for August.”
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