Can Le Pen still win? - Nomura
|Analysts at Nomura explained that their base case remains that, according to current polls, Emmanuel Macron will win the French presidential elections.
Key Quotes:
"It is still mathematically feasible for Marine Le Pen to win the presidency, but this relies on the hypothesis that those who intend to abstain, offer a blank vote or who are still undecided vote for her in the second round."
"This looks highly unlikely, as many of those voters choose to abstain or to vote blank in protest against the political system."
"With less than a month before the first round, she will need to narrow Emmanuel Macron’s lead in the second round polls if she wants to increase her chance of winning."
"Nevertheless, with about 35% of voters still not committed to any candidate, there is still a probability, albeit diminished, that Ms Le Pen could win."
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