Brexit all up in the air again; there will be an appeal - BBH
|Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that Brexit would be a daunting task under ideal circumstances, and conditions are far from ideal.
Key Quotes:
"The situation has become more complex in recent days. First, the High Court ruled that even though Parliament had approved the referendum, its authorization is needed again to trigger Article 50, which properly begins the divorce proceedings.
May's government is engaged in a two-prong response. First, it is appealing the High Court decision. Reports suggest that privately, many ministers expect to lose the appeal. The Supreme Court is expected to hear the appeal early next month. Second, there are reports that a bill is being drafted for Parliament to approve. May has indicated a strong desire to trigger Article 50 by the end of Q1.
While the Tories enjoy a small majority in Parliament, the general sense is that the MPs are less sympathetic to Brexit than the nation. The Tories are split. Although Labor leader Corbyn wrote a page op-ed in favor of remaining, he has historically been hostile to the EU and, seemingly, made a halfhearted effort to rally support for the remain camp.
Yesterday, Corbyn reportedly indicated that he would instruct Labour MPs to vote against triggering Article 50 unless access to the single market can be guaranteed. The Brexit camp and many outspoken Tory MPs have placed emphasis on limiting immigration rather than preserving access to the single market. May herself has said that regaining control of its borders, something she apparently struggled to do as Home Secretary (a slim majority of UK immigrants come from non-EU countries) even though the UK is not a member of the Schengen Agreement.
One way or the other, May will have to reveal more of her Brexit plans. Even if the Supreme Court overturns the High Court verdict, the Prime Minister will want to share her broad objectives, perhaps before the end of the year. The rivalry between Brexit Minister Davis and Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond has been put aside, and a common plan to defend the financial sector (City of London) interest has been devised."
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