AUD/USD trades marginally higher ahead of macroeconomic data
|- AUD/USD rises ahead of key US data that could impact the pair.
- US Producer Prices and Retail Sales are on the docket on Thursday.
- The RBA’s relatively hawkish stance is a supporting factor for the pair.
AUD/USD is trading in the 0.6600s on Thursday, up three hundredths of a percent in the European session, as traders await key macroeconomic data that could impact the pair.
Both US factory gate prices, or Producer Prices, and US Retail Sales are scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT. They may impact the outlook for inflation and tone the debate around when the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates.
The Producer Price Index ex Food and Energy (Core PPI), is an important inflation metric, economists expect a drop to 1.9% YoY registered in February from 2.0% in January. On a monthly basis, Core PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% versus the 0.5% advance seen in the previous month.
The headline Producer Price Index (PPI) is forecast to show a 1.1% YoY gain versus 0.9% in January, and a 0.3% gain MoM, the same as previous.
US Retail Sales is forecast to rebound in February, registering a 0.8% rise against the 0.8% decline in January. Higher-than-expected sales tend to spur inflation with hawkish implications for interest rate policy and a bullish impact on USD (bearish for AUD/USD).
Technical Analysis: AUD/USD in long-term downtrend
AUD/USD is in a long-term downtrend, producing lower highs and lower lows.
Australian Dollar vs. US Dollar: Weekly chart
The AUD/USD has just pushed back after touching a major trendline and there is a risk it could fall further, in line with the longer-term downtrend.
A break below the last swing low of October 2023 at 0.6442 would solidify the bearish outlook and probably see prices ease further to around the 0.6170 October 2022 lows.
Alternatively, a break above the 0.6871 December 2023 high would indicate the long-term trend was probably reversing and the Australian Dollar might be set for a climb to sunnier slopes.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.