AUD/USD losing 0.77 handle in consolidation of recent key data events
|Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7696, up 0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7699 and low at 0.7690.
AUD/USD is 40 pips lower than yesterday's trade and post job data YTD highs. The price has since drifted again into the final session in Asia this week while the greenback loses some momentum. Stocks and yields were lower on Wall Street as investors learn they will need to wait until after March for any tax reforms from Trump's administration. Trump was speaking today and announced that the intends to replace Obamacare as a priority instead. Elsewhere, the data was positive from the US economy although failing to add any further life into the dollar's rally. Analysts at Westpac, who ultimately forecast that AUD/USD will move lower to 0.7400 in the next 1-3 months explained that the US dollar’s impressive post-election rally may have paused, but still has potential to rise further during the months ahead.
Related news for AUD/USD
- US dollar index slides again, falls to 1-week lows
- AUD/NZD outlook is bullish short and longer-term - Westpac
- NZD/USD: retails sale miss sends the bird down test the 0.7200 level
When will the RBA next cut?
Meanwhile, analyst from National Australia Bank (NAB) said they remain more concerned about Australia's economic outlook in 2018, "The RBA’s latest Statement on Monetary Policy suggested the central bank remains relaxed about the state of the economy at present, and is very much in wait and see mode. That said, we remain more concerned about the economic outlook in 2018, and suggest that the RBA will be forced to cut later in 2017 as this impending softening becomes more apparent to the central bank," explained the analysts, adding, "As such, while we no longer expect two cuts to the cash rate mid-year, we do expect one further 25bp cut to the cash rate in November 2017, taking it down to 1.25%."
AUD/USD levels
AUD/USD is supported by the 50 1-hr sma at 0.7691 ahead of 0.7680 previous bullish hourly head & shoulders formation as next support in the slow grind lower from 0.7731 highs for the year. Westpac: "Yesterday’s break above the 0.7600-0.7700 range, which held for two weeks, targets 0.7780 (Nov high)
NAB: "We continue to expect the AUD to depreciate through 2017 to a low of AUD/USD 0.70 in line with further anticipated USD strength and key commodity prices retracing."
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