A dissatisfied world: Trump edition - Rabobank
|Analysts at Rabobank, within their publication titled, "The global economy in the Trump era", explained that both the vote for Brexit in the UK and the choice of the US electorate for Trump as president can be seen as a protest vote against the establishment and against free trade, at least against the distribution of the prosperity generated by free trade.
Key Quotes:
"There are high levels of dissatisfaction in Europe too, as evidenced by the rise of nationalist political parties. Unfortunately, people tend to focus mostly on what has gone wrong and ignore the many good things that have been achieved in recent decades. Although the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and the subsequent euro crisis in Europe caused much damage and misery, global poverty has significantly declined in recent decades, mainly as a result of developments in China and more recently in India.
Even today, there are still reasons for a degree of optimism. The eurozone has now posted several years of steady economic growth. There has been a gradual decline in unemployment across the board. In the United States, the economy is generating its eighth consecutive year of positive economic growth, although the rate of growth has slowed here as well. US policymakers have succeeded in bringing unemployment down to more acceptable levels. The volume of GDP is now at or above the level seen in 2008 in both the US and most European countries.
Of course, this positive picture needs some qualification. Unemployment is still very high, especially in the eurozone Member States hit hardest by the crisis, and mainly amongst young people. The current growth rate and the slowness of the decline in unemployment in southern Europe are contributing to anti-Europe sentiment. In the United States, large parts of the population have been excluded from the increase in prosperity. Their income has lagged behind that of the small group of super-rich in recent decades. Their support for Trump is most of all a vote against the establishment. It is one of the challenges facing President Trump to reduce the enormous gulf between rich and poor without further worsening the government’s financial position. Today, government debt in the US is already more than 100% of GDP."
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