Technology Rules – Shale and the Evolution of the Commodity Market
|Peak oil, the notion that markets and industrial nations were doomed to an ever restricting supply and ever higher price for crude oil, has proven to be one of the great fallacies of modern economics. It follows the food shortages and famines predicted by an earlier generation of analysts into the dustbin of history. Deliverance was provided not by conservation, by reducing demand, but by expansion, new extraction technologies that greatly increased the supply and the potential supply of crude oil.
American oil production reached a 35 year high in July 2015 and with shale wellhead breakeven costs now in the mid-$30s, U.S. drillers have become the global markets swing producers. Price is now determined by the technological expertise of American and Canadian oilmen and for the near future price seems destined to be capped by plentiful supply.
Has the 15-year bull market in commodities come to a permanent end? Is it true that the cure for high prices is high prices? Join us for a discussion of the of global commodities in the 21st century.
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