Commodities and Trading
|Commodities have had a wild ride in the past decade, from record heights in the summer of 2008 followed by the steepest plunge on record in the financial crash. Recovery through 2011 was succeeded by a long decline that has left the Bloomberg Commodity index at its lowest point since April 2002. The index closed on Thursday, July 23rd 7.5% lower than it was at the depth of the last recession. Traditionally commodity prices are the indicators for the revolutions of the business cycle. But in the past 15 years and particularly in the era of central bank zero interest rates they have become a vehicle for trading profits and returns unavailable in other markets. Does the precipitous fall in commodity prices in the past four years predict a coming contraction in demand and recession, is it the result of the withdrawal of trading capital from markets as rates begin to rise, or is it the residue of over investment in production from a decade of artificially low interest rates? Join us for an examination of the commodity market in flux.
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