What you need to know about US elections’ final stretch
|As if there was not enough uncertainty surrounding financial markets, US elections are just around the corner. The US presidential elections 2016 will be held on Tuesday, November 8th.
This has been one of the most controversial pre-campaigns of US history, confronting Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump
We’d like to help you to be aware of the most important political event of this year, one that will transcend borders and will undoubtedly affect the markets.
The debates
The first debate, held in New York in September, generated great expectations and the two candidates shared the stage for the first time.
The second presidential debate was held on October 9th at Washington University, in St Louis, Missouri. The event generated great expectaitions after Trumps' degrading comments about women were revealed.
Still, there's one more debate scheduled that will face the two candidates:The final debate.
This event will be on October 19th at UNLV in Las Vegas, Nevada and will be moderated by Fox News' Chris Wallace.
US Election 2016: All you need to know just one-click away
How many people can vote?
The US voter turnout is among the lowest in the developed world. Only 42% of Americans voted in the 2014 midterm elections, the lowest level since 1978.
Almost in all the states, anyone above 18 years can vote only if they have registered before to the elections. This was not an easy process in the past, but it has become easier in later years.
It should be noted that in the US, the voting day is not declared as a holiday, in fact, historically it has always been held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
How does the election process goes?
The president of the United States is elected by indirect suffrage and so is the electoral college who chooses the winner. Each state has a certain number of these "electors" based on their population in the most recent census. When citizens vote for their candidates, they're voting for the electors. In the United States, there are 538 of them and just half of them - 270 - are needed to designate a president.
It’s worth noting that in almost every state (except Nebraska and Maine), the winner takes all and that’s why the swing states are so important in the race to get to the 270 electors.
Which states should we watch?
We have to pay special attention to swing states, the ones that regularly switch to Democrat or Republican between elections.
States like Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Arizona, Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia, Missouri and North Carolina - according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) - have the power to swing the election.
This time, another key battleground state could be Pennsylvania, that has voted Democratic for the past six elections but only by narrow margins.
Why are US election important for trading?
With worldwide Central Banks on-hold, investors are eagerly waiting for a fresh catalyst to set the tone across the FX board as beyond the Pound and its Brexit woes, majors are trading range bound.
The second presidential debate will take place this Sunday, October 9th, and analysts believe that it's one of Trump’s latest chances to turn things around, which means markets may show more strong reactions to this one results, particularly believing Clinton won the first.
Anyway, things will be more interesting if Trump wins, as Mrs. Clinton´s victory is hardly expected to affect markets. Trump on the other hand, is a hassle, and risk aversion will likely kick in next week if he wins this time.
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