From lockstep to lag, Bitcoin poised to catch up with small cap highs
|What to know
- The Russell 2000 index has pushed to new all time highs alongside strength across U.S. equities and metals, while bitcoin remains 27% below its peak, marking a rare divergence after years of moving in sync.
- With small-cap stocks highly sensitive to falling interest rates and 2026 earning-per-share growth expectations near 49%, according to Goldman Sachs, improving macroeconomic conditions could realign bitcoin and crypto with small-cap strength.
- The Federal Reserve starts Treasury bill purchases today with an initial $8.2 billion operation, the first step in a $40 billion reserve management program running until April.
For the first time in five years, the Russell 2000 Index (IWM) is hitting record highs while bitcoin , which usually tops in tandem, is out of sync and remains 27% below October's record. History suggests the largest cryptocurrency and cryptocurrencies more broadly are likely to catch up.
The Russell 2000, a gauge of U.S. small-cap equities, printed a record on Thursday, as did measures for bigger companies like the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the S&P 500 Index. The Nasdaq 100 is just below its all-time high and metals, led by silver, are also hitting peaks.
Since 2020, new highs in the Russell 2000 have typically coincided with new highs in bitcoin . This alignment was evident in November 2021, when bitcoin peaked at $69,000. It appeared again in early November 2024, when bitcoin moved above $90,000, and again in mid October when it surged to $126,000. Both bottomed on Nov. 21.
Milk Road Macro noted on X that smaller, more risky companies are more sensitive to interest-rate changes than large megacap stocks. This sensitivity is particularly important following the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis-point reduction on Wednesday. Expectations for 2026 Russell 2000 earnings-per-share growth are exceptionally strong at around 49%, according to Goldman Sachs.
EPS for stock indices (Goldman Sachs)
Meantime, another 50 basis points-worth of rate cuts are currently priced into the market for the next 12 months, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool. Those would provide a further boost for riskier assets, like cryptocurrencies.
Fed starts treasury bill buying
Another source of liquidity is the start of the Fed's Treasury-bill purchase program. That begins later Friday, according to ZeroHedge, starting with $8.2 billion as part of its reserve management program.
The buying is part of a broader $40 billion Treasury bill purchase plan running from Dec. 12 alongside reinvestment of maturing agency securities, signaling a renewed liquidity injection into money markets.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.