Bitcoin price macro outlook remains uncertain, analyst says

• Bitcoin price is still not in the clear from a macro perspective, according to crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital.
• The analyst looks at BTC in the one-week timeframe, indicating that the lower high resistance is the level to beat.
• BTC climbed almost 5% to begin the month with the right foot forward and activating the moniker Uptober.

Bitcoin (BTC) price is still not in the clear, according to analyst and trader Rekt Capital, who explores the price action on a macro perspective. It comes after the big crypto leaped almost 5%, testing the $28,600 levels before a retraction.

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Bitcoin price still in the thicket

Bitcoin (BTC) price remains in the woods for as long as it has not decisively breached the lower high resistance at $28,370 on a macro perspective. This barricade is achieved by connecting the highs of at least three candlesticks in the one-week timeframe, which remains above the last lower high. Based on the weekly chart below, a lot of uncollected buy-side liquidity continues to reside above this diagonal roadblock.

Rekt Capital indicates that for Bitcoin price to rally higher, it must break above the immediate hurdle at $28,370. Confirmation of a breach will be indicated by a solid break and close above the aforementioned level. Meanwhile, there is a weekly supply zone around the $30,000 psychological level, which continues to hold as a resistance order block, capping BTC’s upside potential.

To confirm the move north, Bitcoin price must breach its midline, the weekly mean threshold, at $30,084 and close above it. A strong break and close above it would revitalize hopes for an uptrend.

BTC/USDT 1-week chart

Meanwhile, the odds still favor the downside for Bitcoin price from a macro perspective, which explains why expert analyst Akash Girimath warned investors to exercise caution lest they are caught in a disguised bull trap.  

Meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) remains in the negative territory while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hinting at a sell signal after crossing the signal line (yellow) band to the downside. With this outlook, Bitcoin price could find itself back under the foothold of the $26,000 psychological level, or in the dire case, lose the range low support of $25,754.

Bitcoin price could be forming a local top 200 days before BTC Halving

As a side note, we are just about 200 days away from the Bitcoin Halving event, expected around April 2024.

Retracing the steps made by the Bitcoin price 200 days before this event in the previous Halving cycles, it is observed that a local top is formed every time. As such, history could be repeating and Bitcoin price could be cooking up a local top.