Bitcoin Forecast: Downed by the ETF delay, but still sees higher lows
|- The BTC/USD fell sharply amid another postponement of an ETF decision.
- The technical picture is complicated, but this cryptocurrency still enjoys higher lows, a positive sign.
- The Poll of Experts shows a neutral tendency in the short run and a bullish one in the medium and long terms.
The price of Bitcoin tumbled down as the SEC decided to postpone a high-profile request for the Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) by VanEck. The approval or disapproval decision was scheduled for the past week, but the firm and the markets will now have to wait until September 30th. Another critical decision on an ETF is on September 21st.
While this is not the first delay, the blow was quite harsh this time. The BTC/USD erased most of its recent gains. Other cryptocurrencies had it worse, with crashes to levels last seen in 2017. There are good reasons why Bitcoin is crushing the competition. One of them is ETF-related: most requests for the financial instrument focus solely on the original crypto coin.
While far from all Bitcoins are traded on exchanges, the price is undoubtedly influenced by the news about ETF's. Why? This mainstream financial instrument allows mainstream users to dive into the world of cryptocurrencies. More accessibility means more money and higher prices.
To understand more about ETF's see: Bitcoin ETF explained: 9 questions and answers about the critical crypto catalyst
In the upcoming week, no ETF decisions are due, so we will likely see the usual ebb and flow of markets in speculation about the potential of ETF's and other factors. Perhaps a quiet consolidation period will allow the BTC/USD to recover gradually.
What's next for Bitcoin?
BTC/USD Technical Analysis - Some comfort from higher lows
The recent falls are not looking good for the BTC/USD. After the initial crash, the Relative Strength Index dipped into the oversold territory, indicating a bounce, which eventually happened. And now, the RSI is above 30, not oversold, and may continue dropping. Momentum remains to the downside. Bitcoin also fell below the 50 Simple Moving Average, another bearish sign.
One silver lining comes from the low points on the chart since late June. We can see the lowest point just around $5,800 followed by another one a few days later and just a bit higher. We then see a bottom at $6,069 in mid-July and the recent trough at $6,131. These higher lows provide some fuel for the Bitcoin bulls, something that other cryptocurrencies do not enjoy.
The levels mentioned above are all support lines now.
Looking up, $6,800 is a double-top after holding down the price in June and July. $7,200 was a low point in mid-July. Further up, $7,800 was a resistance line in early June and then a high level of support in late July. The last level, for now, is $8,488, the recent peak.
The Forecast Poll of experts shows a neutral tendency in the short term and a bullish bias later on, with the biggest gains in the medium term. The average levels have been downgraded for all timeframes..
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