Bitcoin-ETF launch could trigger profit-taking
|Bitcoin spiked late Friday afternoon, posting a 50% rally from late September lows on news of the launch of a Bitcoin-ETF in the United States. Periodically, bulls and bears try to play tug-of-war, but all the fighting is centered around $62K. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 75, in greed mode, indicating room for continued gains.
The RSI index for the BTCUSD pair on the daily chart is hovering in overbought territory at 73. Short-term traders should keep in mind that the sign of the rally exhausting and the beginning of profit-taking is the return of RSI to the neutral territory. Until that time, the chances are high that we will see the rally's final stage with the potential to update the historical highs of $65K. However, the chances of a short-term correction outweigh the positive expectations for the final momentum of the rally.
The total capitalization of the crypto market is approaching $2.5 trillion, while the capitalization of Bitcoin alone exceeds $1.1 trillion. Clearly, this influx of funds into the crypto sector came on the wave of hopes that the SEC would approve the first ETF in the United States. Crypto market participants expect a powerful inflow of funds from U.S. big capital. According to CoinShares, the total amount of funds in products based on digital assets reached a record $72.3 billion.
A Bitcoin futures-based ETF is expected to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday, Oct. 19th. The first approval from the SEC to launch such a product was received by ProShares. This is quite a landmark event, considering how long it took to get permission from the SEC to launch an ETF. The SEC will have until the end of October to respond to applications to launch similar products from other companies.
Despite active price growth, not all crypto market participants are equally optimistic. Some crypto market participants believe that now we are witnessing not the beginning of a new stage of large-scale growth but are approaching a correction. This is because reaching a new historical high (or a series of historical highs) may provoke the beginning of aggressive profit-taking by large investors who opened positions during the rebound from $30K.
In addition, there is the possibility that approval from the SEC could be followed by the same "selling the facts" as at the launch of futures trading in 2017 and El Salvador's acceptance of bitcoin as a means of payment this September.
Both of these events attracted enormous speculative interest and allowed Bitcoin to take its share of the crypto market. However, the event triggered a massive sell-off, throwing cryptocurrencies back for a long time without breaking the long-term bullish trend in them.
At this stage, it is a reasonable expectation to see both a sharp growth in the crypto market and a likely quite impressive decline due to profit-taking by early speculators.
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