Bitcoin: Gains are likely to be limited
|Bitcoin broke support at 31500/31000 exactly as predicted but bounced just 1000 pips above my ultimate target for the crash at 27500/27000. What a call!! A 30,000 pip collapse from our original sell signal to within just 1000 pips of the longer term target.
It is entirely possible that this is the end of that crash as we hold 27500. A minor bullish hammer candle could confirm this although I would want to see a bullish pattern or a buy signal to pile in to this market longer term.
We topped exactly at first resistance at 34000/34500 keeping the outlook negative.
Ripple broke important 6 month trend line & 200 day moving average support at 0.7230/6930 in the bear trend for an important medium term sell signal which did trigger losses to our ultimate target of 0.5090/5080. And guess what? We bottomed exactly here. .
Bulls have been destroyed (exactly as predicted over the last 2 months) with a 75% crash as we retest the 2019 high.
Ethereum lower again as predicted of course to test important 200 day moving average support at 1875/65 in severely oversold conditions. We ran as far as important 61.8% Fibonacci support at 1728 & bottomed exactly here.
However outlook remains negative as we hold first resistance at 1970/2000.
Daily analysis
Bitcoin held just above important support at 27500/27000 (my ultimate target for the head & shoulders sell signal). I still think gains are likely to be limited while I wait for a buy signal or bullish pattern. Almost every buyer this year was in a losing position at yesterday’s low so there could be sell orders from them on a bounce.
We topped exactly at first resistance at 34000/34500 so holding here keeps the outlook negative. Very strong resistance at 36300/600. Shorts need stops above 37500. A break above I could see as a medium term buy signal.
Holding first resistance at 34000/34500 targets 33500 & minor support at 31700/500. Below 31000 risks a retest of 29000/28500. A double bottom here would help to turn the medium term outlook positive. Watch for support at 27500/27000 on any further losses.
Ripple has crashed as far as our ultimate target of 0.5090/5080. What a call!!! We bottomed exactly here. However I see no clear buy signal or bullish pattern. We topped exactly at first resistance at 0.6450/6550 where a high for the day was expected! A break higher today however can target 0.7330/7380. Expect very strong resistance at 0.8500/8600.
The 2019 high is at 0.4940. A break below here is catastrophic for bulls & risks a slide to 0.4400/4350.
Ethereum tested important 200 day moving average support at 1875/65 & important 61.8% Fibonacci support at 1728. Buyers jumped in. It is entirely possible that this is the end of the crash, with a huge double bottom pattern… but if bulls cannot hold prices above 1700 we could target 1550.
Bulls absolutely MUST hold prices above 1700. Minor resistance at 1970/2000 but above here can target 2130/2150. We should struggle to beat this level so watch for a high for the day. A break above 2200 can target very strong resistance at 2300/2400.
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