Weekly technical and trading outlook – USD/JPY
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Last Update At 02 Aug 2021 01:27GMT.
Trend daily chart
Sideways.
Daily indicators
Falling.
21 HR EMA
109.67
55 HR EMA
109.71
Trend hourly chart
Sideways.
Hourly Indicators
Neutral.
13 HR RSI
49
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily analysis
Consolidation with upside bias.
Resistance
110.59 - Jul 23 high.
110.28 - Last Wed's high.
109.95 - Last Thur's high.
Support
109.59 - Last Tue's low.
109.37 - Last week's low (Fri).
109.07 - Jul's 7-week low (19).
USD/JPY - 109.68.. Despite dlr's early rally fm Jul's 109.07 low in mid- Jul to 110.59, dlr fell from 110.58 last Mon to 109.37 Fri due to usd's weakness following dovish FOMC on Wed b4 rebounding on short covering to 109.82 in NY.
On the bigger picture, dlr's fall fm 118.66 (Dec 2016) to 2019 low at 104.46 (Sep) confirms early uptrend fm 2016 29-month bottom at 99.00 has hit a top there. Despite hitting a 3-1/2 year bottom of 101.19 in Mar 2020 on risk-off trades due to COVID-19 pandemic, dlr's rally to 111.71 the same month signals correction over. Despite dlr's erratic fall to 102.60 (Jan 2021), subsequent rise to 116.65 at the start of Jul signals pullback over n as long as 107.49 holds, gain twd 2020 peak at 112.22 may be seen in Q4 of 2021. A weekly close below 109. 07 would prolong choppy sideways swings n risks weakness twd 107.49 but only break there shift risk to downside for stronger retracement to 106.05/10.
Today, as Fri's 109.37 low (Asian open) was accompanied by 'bullish convergences' on hourly indicators, subsequent bounce to 109.82 on usd's broad-based gain following upbeat U.S. data suggests consolidation with upside bias remains, abv 110.28, 110.59 later n only below 109.37 risks weakness twd 109.07, 108.57.
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