Weekly economic and financial commentary
|United States: Labor market continues to exude resilience
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Coming into the week, financial markets were looking for validation that January's unexpected strength was not a fluke and that the downward slide in economic momentum experienced late last year had stabilized. On balance, this week's indicators supported that notion.
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Next week: CPI (Tue), Retail Sales (Wed), Industrial Production (Fri)
International: Central banks front and center this week
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Obviously, Fed Chair Powell's two-day testimony caught market participants' attention the most; however, the Bank of Canada (BoC) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) also met this week as well. While neither institution caught markets off guard with any surprise decisions or communications, a Fed shifting slightly more hawkish combined with stress in the U.S. banking system could complicate future monetary policy decisions going forward.
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Next week: India CPI (Mon), Argentina CPI (Tue), European Central Bank (Thu)
Credit market insights: 2023 started off with some signs of life, beige book reports
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Overall economic activity modestly expanded in six districts, while little or no growth was reported in the other six districts. The labor market remains tight, while inflation is still a concern. Regional variation in prices as well as labor supply and demand contribute to a mixed but generally positive picture.
Topic of the week: Party of one
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There has been a gradual shift in household structure taking place in the United States. Now, more than half of women are single. The change is rippling across the economy and leaving a mark on the labor market, wealth and spending.
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