Weekly column: Retrograde chaos and market uncertainty

Review

The Constitution assigns power of the purse to Congress. But in his early actions and words, President Trump is taking more of that power for himself…. [The] U.S. Constitution says, “No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law.” 

— Greg Ip, “This Spending Fight Is Actually About the Constitution,” Wall Street Journal, February 21, 2025.

Some of [Trump’s] actions are exhilarating. Some of them make you ask: Are these people clinically insane?

— Peggy Noonan, “A Stiff Drink From the Trump Fire Hose,” Wall Street Journal, February 20, 2025.

Chinese AI sensation DeepSeek plans to release key AI model codes and data to the public starting next week, an unusual step to share far more of its core technology than rivals such as OpenAI have done.

— Saritha Rai, Bloomberg, February 21, 2025.

The Era of Disruption continues. And with it, so does this period of uncertainty about the present and future, which markets generally don’t like. The next disruption in market behavior may have started as we enter the orb of both Mars and Venus changing directions.

Most global stock indices followed a similar pattern last week. Many were doing fine until mid-week, then sold off. The NASDAQ, for instance, made a new all-time high on February 18, and the S&P tested its all-time high the next day. Then, all fell hard into Friday, with the DJIA taking the brunt of the losses.

In Europe, the AEX and DAX made new all-time highs on February 18-19, then sold off. The Zurich SMI bucked the trend by rising sharply all week and tested its all-time high on Friday. The London FTSE failed to take out its all-time high from the prior week but sold off into the end of the week.

In Asia, it was a mixed bag, with the Hang Seng soaring to its highest mark in three years. But in India, the NIFTY fell to its lowest level since June 2024. All in all, it was a very unsettling week for many global indices as well as commodities and cryptos. Promises of rallies that mostly fizzled out, symbolic of Mars about to change directions. They huffed and puffed, then blew themselves down.

Short-term geocosmics

There are myriad examples of people unwilling to accept certain realities and we suffer because of it. We feel righteous because we think we have the right information, and everyone who doesn’t agree with the opinions we have gathered is the enemy. We feel vindicated because the experience we have online validates our feelings, but we forget that hidden algo’s have also crafted this perspective for us. We are afraid to go places where we may encounter the opposition because they are just so wrong that we cannot even think to insert ourselves there. It’s a terrible state, yet it’s a perfect state to be in for some Chiron medicine..… Oh dear god, look, there’s Elon doing the Sieg heil, but wait one second, look over there, isn’t that AOC doing it too? (and let’s be honest: neither of them were doing it).

— Adam Sommer, “The Final Chiron Return,” kosmognosis@substack.com, February 17, 2025.

There is despair among Europeans as President Donald Trump upends the post-1945 transatlantic alliance and falsely blames Ukraine for initiating the war. “You should have never started it,” he said on February 18th.

— “How Vladimir Putin Plans to Play Donald Trump,” The Editorial Board of The Economist, February 18, 2025.

Adam Sommer, who I believe created the first astrological podcast several years ago, has written an excellent article on the Chiron Return taking placed in the chart of the United States right now (see quote above). This is a 50-year cycle that seems to coincide with something akin to a “mid-life crisis” in the chart of individuals, a “fork-in-the-road” period where one has to decide whether to continue on the path in life that they have built thus far, or if there is really something else they want to do that would make life more interesting and meaningful (to them, but often at the expense of security to others). It can be a painful period, but at the same time, it can lead to a healing and eventually to a liberation if one is willing to heal and be healed. But here we are in the U.S. It is our Chiron return, a “crisis” that potentially leads to a “healing” period.

In the immediate period ahead, Mars retrograde, in effect since December 7, comes to an end this weekend on February 23. But by the end of next week, on March 1-2, Venus will turn retrograde. This is part of the “retrograde chaos” we have identified between November 25, 2024, and April 12, 2025, when all the personal planets (Mercury, Mars, Venus, then Mercury again) enter their retrograde cycles, back-to-back. The result is a series of start-stop actions as new information comes to light, causing a revision of initiatives that have recently started. It creates the appearance that leaders are disorganized and don’t really know what they are doing or why. Typically, markets are put off by these abrupt changes of direction.

With Mars and Venus both changing directions in the next week, a sizeable reversal in many financial markets could commence, if they haven’t just started. Both of these planetary stations have a very high correlation to primary cycles or their phases, especially with stocks. With Mars, the correlation is about 75% within an orb of 10 trading days. With Venus, it is even higher within an orb of 12 trading days. The overlap is February 13-March 14, with the center of influence being the midpoint next week, on February 26. So, pay special attention to any market making a primary cycle high or low or a strong corrective retracement into this period.

One market to watch closely will be Gold. This will begin the 15th week of its 15-21 week primary cycle, and as of last week, February 20, it made a new all-time high at 2973.40 in the nearby April contract. In bull markets, rallies lasting 8-13 weeks are the norm. It is rare that any financial market makes a primary cycle crest past the 18th week. Gold is in rare territory now and a candidate for a reversal, especially as it nears our upside price target range for this primary cycle, as discussed in last weekend’s annual Forecast webinar. Recordings are now available for those who missed it. It is well worth it as a reference for financial markets over the next six months.

Longer-term thoughts and opinions 

On Elon Musk … All my adult life, the answer to “let’s find waste, fraud and abuse within the federal government” has been, “Whatever you find will be a rounding error, it isn’t worth the pursuit.” I never thought that true and never saw it only as a question of saving money but of assuring citizens that their government can be trusted. It is heartening to see DOGE attempt reform—exciting, actually. But judgments about the definition of good spending seem to be up to Mr. Musk and his young men, who are assumed to know fat from muscle. Do they? We don’t know… Everyone knows DOGE will make mistakes, but that isn’t the point. To take on seemingly all parts of government at the same time is to unsettle and confuse the entire government at the same moment. That is dangerous.

—Peggy Noonan, “A Stiff Drink from the Trump Fire Hose,” Wall Street Journal, February 22-23, 2025.

 The Department of Government Efficiency faced renewed calls for independent oversight after news broke that DOGE boss Elon Musk had callously cut off Social Security benefits for thousands of Revolutionary War veterans…. At publishing time, DOGE was reportedly seeking a way to verify the ages and identities of the Revolutionary War veterans by asking Senator Mitch McConnell if he knew any of them from back then.

—”Cruel: Elon Musk Cuts Off Social Security Benefits For Thousands of Revolutionary War Veterans,” The Babylon Bee, February 19, 2025.

This choice between “fear of the unbelievable” versus “hope” that this is all simply theatrics that will lead to peace and prosperity is reflective of the nature of Saturn (seriousness and fear) conjoining Neptune (acting and misdirection) going into Aries (let’s not dither with concerns about possible consequences later on because we may miss the chance to succeed now). But let us face straight-on the elephant in the room of Saturn conjunct Neptune in Aries. It has to do with fear of the unknown and lack of trust in leaders who make choices that affect our collective psyche, even the very existence of many in the world.

Saturn wants to know what to expect in the external world of phenomena. Neptune already knows but in the world of the imagination and spiritual beliefs (or conspiracy theories). It hasn’t a clue how to navigate in the “real” world without the help of Saturn, so it makes things up (propaganda and beliefs based on assumptions or information that is often false) to create a narrative to make itself look like it is all-knowing, that it cares. In reality, it’s usually more “con” than care.

Think of Neptune and Saturn in their highest manifestation as the drive and vision to make “dreams come true” to create a reality of blissful peace through imagination, clear-headed planning, and hard work. The downside is that the dream may turn out to be a nightmare, and you hope that it will end soon.

Neither reality (hope or despair) is likely for long. You eventually wake up, and the dream – for better or worse – ends. Yet, with “retrograde chaos” also underway right now, it starts up all over again. It’s like the movie “Groundhog Day” with Bill Murray, where he keeps waking up and reliving the same day over and over again. You start something new, stop, then re-start again, then stop again, and you are right back at the same place you started, only now with a whole lot of drama accompanied by a loss of trust and goodwill (i.e., political capital).

If you want to succeed and be respected under these cosmic conditions, it’s very simple: use this period of time to develop well-thought-out strategies and then implement them with awareness and sensitivity to the needs of others. Or, as Elvis Pressley sang, “Don’t be cruel.” Being cruel will diminish trust, the all-important characteristic that determines the support (and success) you will receive in the future and define your legacy in the end. Rushing under a Saturn aspect, and one that is about to enter the impatient sign of Aries (with Neptune), is bound to be fraught with contradictions, mistakes, and unanticipated results that could make matters more complicated, less easily resolvable.

How does this relate to markets? At some point, the floor can give way, and a feeling of falling into an abyss arises. In other words, if a rally to new all-time highs in equities happens, it may get frothy. And there can also be a very sharp decline to follow. Both of these market actions could happen by August. The dream of bliss, first, can quickly turn into a mini-panic as a result of rushing into actions that are not fully thought out too quickly. Or by behaving as a bully (a typical Saturn in Aries misjudgment), pushing others into a corner without time to work out compromises or voluntary acceptance.

This can be avoided. All one has to do is develop the plan and take the needed time to enact it, accruing support from others who will be needed, rather than losing them by pushing too hard against their will and before they understand how this really is. a possible win-win situation. Speaking of which, Mars retrograde and stationary (especially in Cancer), as well as Saturn entering Aries, is not usually successful unless proposals are win-win types. Mars, Aries, Cancer, and Saturn are each part of the “Cardinal Dilemma” grouping developed by psychologist-astrologer Dr. Zipporah Dobyns. It represents the challenge of integrating psychological states of “me first” and independence (Mars, Aries) with “you first” and co-dependence (Moon) and control (Saturn). If you can do it yourself, that would be fine and good. But if you need others, it pays to avoid asserting your control and forcing others against their will. Control issues are the crux of make-it or break-it deals. Bullies and aggressors don’t have favorable long-term outcomes here.

This is not the time to push and coerce, as if you are running out of time. Aries may think that. But Saturn won’t let that happen. Aries is a force. Saturn is a wall. Forcing against a wall can be frustrating, and frustration can lead to anger and broken trust, something that Saturn and Neptune together need to avoid if they wish to have successful results where all parties keep intact their trust in one another. Better to have a plan and build with one brick at a time so it stands the test of time. Saturn in Aries can work, and it can be very successful. It just takes time, perhaps more time than one wishes. Saturn and Neptune in Aries can work, too. It just requires trust, truth, and honoring one’s words and agreements or those of others you represent who preceded you.

Yes, this is a challenging time and one of great turbulence. But it can be navigated well if all needs of the “Cardinal Dilemma” are integrated and balanced, which is really the key to “The art of a deal.” Otherwise, as Peggy Noonan said above, we may feel like we are dealing with the “clinically insane.”