We will know who won the election within a day
|Late Counting
I created my "Late Counting" map based on the New York Times article How Long Will Vote Counting Take? Estimates and Deadlines in All 50 States
Even though California allows counting until November 20, let's be honest. We know who won California already.
The same applies to Illinois, New York, and Utah. The latter will go to Trump.
Maximum Uncertainty
For the benefit of Trump, let's assume some states are tossups that really aren't.
Let's also factor in states where late counting could matter.
Maximum Uncertainty Map
Biden is a 222 and Trump is at 125.
Likely to Quickly Know
- AZ: 11
- TX: 38
- WI: 10
- GA: 16
- FL: 29
- ME: 1
- NE: 1
- Total of Above: 106
Biden needs 270-222 = 48 of 106.
But we cannot stop there.
- NC expects 98% counting. Given the preponderance of mail-in voting will be Democratic, if Biden is ahead with 98% counting we will know Biden won that state.
- Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota are similar. If Biden is ahead with just mail-in votes to count, we will know who won.
What Does "Know" Mean?
The results will not be official until states officially post results and that will be after all the counting.
But let's be honest, we will realistically know who won if Biden is ahead with only mail-in votes to count in such setups.
In addition, we will reach a mathematical certainty far before the official period based on outstanding ballots.
Trump's hope of the Supreme Court deciding the election hinges on Trump winning nearly all of the "Maximum Uncertainty" states plus Pennsylvania (outright or on a Supreme Court decision).
There will be delays in official counts, but count on knowing who won much sooner.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.