Virus shutdowns begin to show up in the data
|- The U.S. surpassed Italy and China with the most confirmed cases of COVID-19. Europe is still the center of the storm, with the total cases in Europe’s five largest economies topping 230,000.
- The impact of virus-related shutdowns became readily apparent in this week’s initial unemployment claims, which soared to 3.3 million.
- Most economic data reflect the period before the COVID-19 outbreak intensified in mid-March. New home sales averaged their strongest pace in over 12 years during the three months ended in February, while consumer spending rose modestly.
Global Review
Virus Hits Eurozone Data; Global Growth Downgraded
This past week, March PMI surveys for the Eurozone were released, with data suggesting a sharp deceleration in the broader European economy is likely. The services PMI fell to a record low of 28.4, while the manufacturing PMI dropped to 44.8, which signals the Eurozone economy could contract more than 4.0% in 2020.
As the COVID-19 virus intensifies, we downgraded our international growth forecasts once again. We now expect annual contractions in the U.K., Japan as well as Canada, and forecast China to experience its first annual contraction since at least 1980.
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