USDCHF: Neutral
|USDCHF: 0.9635
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral
It looked as though the SNB were quietly intervening on Friday, with the Chf notably weak in an otherwise steady market ahead of the US economic figures. US$Chf reached 0.9700, but then quickly reversed following the soft data and headed back towards the lower end of its recent range, but not getting close to testing the 0.9600 support and leaving the outlook pretty much unchanged.
The short term momentum indicators are mixed/flat and, on the downside, good support still lies at 0.9590/ 0.9600 although if this is taken out there is not too much to hold it up until 0.9550, where the 200 WMA has done a good job of propping the dollar up over the last couple of weeks. Below there would be a longer term concern for the dollar and could see a run back to previous, 2016 lows at 0.9520/30, to 0.9500, and potentially a fair bit lower.
On the topside, the dollar did its best on Friday to take out the nearby resistance, although 0.9700 once again proved a significant hurdle that is yet to be overcome. If taken out, then we could quickly head toward 0.9730 and then to 0.9745 although I don’t see it up here today.
More choppy trade looks likely within the 0.9600/0.9700 range, possibly until the ECB on Thursday. If anything I mildly prefer to trade from the short side but not convinced, especially if the SNB are underpinning the dollar.
| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.9760 | (38.2% of 1.0099/0.9555) | 0.9628 | Friday low |
| 0.9730 | Descending trend resistance | 0.9615 | 13 July low |
| 0.9700 | Friday high | 0.9601 | 12 July low |
| 0.9785 | Minor | 0.9591 | 7 July low |
| 0.9665 | Minor | 0.9555/52 | 3 July low/29 June low /200 WMA |
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