USD/JPY Forecast: Bulls need US 10-yr yield above 3.04%
|- USD/JPY struggles to take out key descending trendline hurdle.
- 10-year treasury yield needs to find acceptance above 3.04 percent, in which case the USD/JPY will likely see a sustained move above 110.04.
- An above-forecast US CPI reading could push yields higher.
Dollar's rebound from the ascending trendline, though encouraging, lacks the vigor to cut through the 5-month long falling trendline, sloping downwards from the November high and December high.
Daily chart
As seen in the chart above, the pair has failed to capitalize on the break above the falling trendline. Further, only a close above 110.04 - 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of Jan/Mar sell-off - would signal a continuation of the rally from the recent low of 104.63.
The breakout has remained elusive, largely due to US 10-year treasury yield's inability to find acceptance above the 3 percent mark.
US 10-year treasury yield weekly chart
Moreover, the weekly chart shows the yield needs to clear the January 2014 high of 3.041 percent in order to revive the bull run in the USD/JPY pair.
Such a move looks likely if the US April consumer price index (CPI) due today at 12:30 GMT prints above the estimate of 0.3 percent month-on-month rise. Moreover, an above-forecast reading would boost odds of faster Fed rate hikes.
On the other hand, a weaker-than-expected inflation could weigh over treasury yields and the US dollar. That said, only a break below 2.717 percent would confirm a bearish trend reversal in USD/JPY pair.
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