USD/CAD Forecast
|The Canadian dollar continues to sparkle, and recorded a fifth straight winning week. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.2416, its lowest weekly close since June 2015. This week’s key event is Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
Canada’s GDP expanded 0.6% in May, easily beating the estimate of 0.6%. In the US, Advance GDP posted a strong gain in 2.6% in the second quarter, above the estimate of 2.5%. Political risk continues to rise, as Trump’s failure to pass a healthcare bill weighed on the US dollar.
Updates:
USD/CAD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it.
-
RMPI: Monday, 8:30. The indicator edged up to 1.0% in April, easily beating the estimate of 0.5%. This marked a 4-month high. The forecast for the May report stands at 0.5%.
-
Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 9:30.
-
Employment Change: Friday, 8:30.
-
Trade Balance: Friday, 8:30.
-
Ivey PMI: Friday, 10:00. GDP is released each month. In April, GDP slowed to 0.2%, matching the estimate. This was the weakest gain since February. Another gain of 0.2% is expected in May.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USD/CAD opened the week at 1.2532 and dropped to a low of 1.2410. The pair touched a high of 1.2577, testing resistance at 1.2563 (discussed last week). USD/CAD lost ground on Friday, closing the week at 1.2416.
Technical lines, from top to bottom
We start with resistance at 1.2823.
1.2710 is next.
1.2563 was tested as the pair posted gains late in the week before retracting.
1.2457 is an immediate resistance line.
1.2351 has been a cushion since May 2015.
1.2218 is next.
1.2126 is the final support line for now.
I am bearish on USD/CAD
The US dollar is under pressure, with mixed numbers in Q2 and worries that the Fed might not raise rates in December. The Canadian economy has been improving, and the recent rate hike by the BoC has made the Canadian dollar more attractive.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.