UK retail sales preview: Christmas sales are set to fall
|Traditionally, the pre-Christmas period is a gold mine for shops as many people in the nowadays western societies often leave the Christmas presents for the last moment. This tradition is making a case for the retail sales to be boosted strongly in the month of December, but with the UK retail sales report due on Friday, January 19, the opposite is the case.
The UK retail sales are expected to fall 0.6% over the month in December after rising strong 1.1% in November. While over the month the retail sales are seen falling, they are still expected to accelerate to 3.0% over the year.
After excluding the sales of motor fuel the retail sales are seen falling even steeper by 0.8% over the month in December while rising also by 3.0% over the year.
While the UK economy is hammered by a post-Brexit squeeze on UK consumers, there is a perfect case to serve as an explanation to expected deceleration with high comparison base in November and fewer number of working days.
The UK retailers confirmed that “Black Friday” events contributed to the monthly increase in household goods stores, with electrical household appliances making the largest contribution to the 1.1% m/m growth back in November.That is the reason why the volume of monthly sales will be lower in December as the number of working days before Christmas is lower compared to November boosted by “Black Friday” discount sales.
The pattern of retail sales in the UK in last three years also confirms that sales tend to fall in December with retail sales falling -1.0% m/m in December 2016 and falling -1.9% in December 2017.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.