Analysis

UK retail sales beat expectations in February

  • US stocks opened largely unchanged as investors sat on the side‐lines ahead of a closely followed House of Representatives vote on a bill that would largely repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. European stock markets gain 0.2% to 0.5%.

  • UK retail sales beat expectations in February, rising 1.5% m/m ex. auto fuel after a 0.3% m/m decline in January. However, British retail sales in the 3 months to February recorded their biggest slide in nearly 7 years as higher fuel prices eroded shoppers' disposable income. A drag on overall Q1 economic growth now looks all but certain.

  • Initial jobless claims rose by 15,000 to 258,000 in the week ended March 18, the Labor department said. It was the highest level since the week ended January 28 and above consensus (240,000). Meanwhile, continuing claims, a measure of the number of people claiming benefits, was little changed at 2m.

  • Purchases of new homes increased in February to a seven‐month high, indicating the effects of the recent rise in borrowing costs on the US residential real estate market have been modest. Sales rose 6.1% to a 592,000 annualized pace.

  • EMU banks took up more free long‐term loans than expected at the ECB's final TLTRO auction as expectations grow that the era of free cash may be coming to an end. The TLTRO saw 474 banks borrow €233.5B over four years. It was also way more than in the previous three auctions, once the repayment of existing loans is taken out.

  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives would win more votes than the centre‐left Social Democrats (SPD) if an election were to be held this Sunday, a survey showed, six months before a national vote in Europe's political and economic powerhouse.

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