Trump's implications for US indices
|So after all the posturing and insults, degradations and investigations the race has been run the polls counted and Donald J Trump is the 45th President of the United States. The night unfolded very much like that of the Brexit vote, with initial polls putting Hillary Clinton well in the lead early on. It all came down to a few swing states such as Ohio and Florida, states that were called to Trump late into the night as many had waited for the very same states to go to the Democrats.
The end result was actually not even particularly close with the remaining states all expected to go to Donald Trump. Mr Trump will be the first President in a number of years to control both the House of Representatives and the Senate, making pushing through a lot of the republican policies much easier. Of course despite the Republicans controlling both the house and the senate very few republican politicians actually supported Trump, so the big question will be whether the new President will have the support of his own party in order to push through the laws and bill he wants implemented.
The reaction on the markets has been two fold with an initial shock move to the downside as many had predicted, however the realisation of that downside has not been fulfilled and the major US indices have retraced much of their losses. The key point we must realise is that there is no fundamental difference in markets from yesterday to today, and if anything the market retracement has made the picture a little clearer.
The biggest fear was that market downside would derail the plans by the Fed to raise interest rates in December, however after the moves and recovery this morning probability is actually now stronger than previously, now up at 85%. So in all in all its been an incredibly busy night, but there is no market turmoil as of yet and markets are only reacting to the shock rather than anything else.
I am not a Trump fan and I voted to Remain in the EU, however many said that EU membership was too big a decision for the British people to vote for and that's the reason why the people voted out, because they didn't understand. Well tonight shows that it's not the topic that matters, it's change that people want. It's a move away from corruption and the politicians that find it impossible to connect with the electorate. For years people have moaned that all the parties are too close together and there is no left and right anymore. Well you have that divide now, and America has voted against the establishment. The question is what would be worse a government of far left socialists or an anti-establishment government veering off to the right? Well we're all about to find out! That's democracy. The world is changing and its change voted for by the masses.
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