The NBP still expects stable official rates
|The minutes from the latest meeting of the National Bank of Poland brought no significant news yesterday. The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) still sees stable rates as the most likely scenario despite the fact that the economic growth will likely be somehow slower than had originally been anticipated. Let us recall that stability of the Polish official rates in 2017 is our base case scenario as well. Still, the zloty weakened against the euro by about 0.5% during the day.
In the meantime, the Czech koruna remains glued to the Czech National Bank’s (CNB) intervention floor (EUR/CZK 27.0) while EURCZK forwards have fallen considerably over the past few weeks as markets prepare on the exit from interventions. From the point of view of timing of the exit, yesterday’s ECB meeting did not bring substantially new information. It is however important to keep in mind that the CNB is currently preparing its new economic projection (that will be released on 3rd November) in which the CNB assumes the ECB will terminate its QE programme at the end of March (with no tapering). Therefore, should the ECB eventually (i.e. at December’s meeting) extend the QE (which cannot be ruled out), this would mean that the exit may also be postponed towards the end of next year.
| Currencies | % chng | |
| EUR/CZK | 27.02 | 0.0 |
| EUR/HUF | 307.1 | 0.2 |
| EUR/PLN | 4.32 | 0.3 |
| EUR/USD | 1.09 | -0.4 |
| EUR/CHF | 1.08 | -0.1 |
| FRA 3x6 | % | bps chng |
| CZK | 0.28 | 0 |
| HUF | 0.68 | -2 |
| PLN | 1.73 | 0 |
| EUR | -0.30 | 0 |
| GB | % | bps chng |
| Czech Rep. 10Y | 0.41 | 3 |
| Hungary 10Y | 2.95 | -7 |
| Poland 10Y | 2.96 | -2 |
| Slovakia 10Y | 0.47 | -2 |
| CDS 5Y | % | bps chng |
| Czech Rep. | 41 | 0 |
| Hungary | 122 | 0 |
| Poland | 76 | 0 |
| Slovakia | 42 | 0 |
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.