The labor force adjusted unemployment rate is still 10%
|Fed Chair Jerome Powell proposed a methodology that factored in labor force declines due to Covid. I replicate the idea.
Powell Calculation
I discussed Powell's adjusted unemployment rate on March 2, in How Did the Fed Conclude the Real Unemployment Rate Was 10% in January?
As you can see, I came up with nearly the same chart via the methodology described in the above link.
Private Payroll Rise a Whopping 465,000
Earlier today I noted Private Payroll Rise a Whopping 465,000
The BLS put the official unemployment rate at 6.2% whereas the labor-force adjusted unemployment rate is 10.0%.
Labor Force and Projected Labor Force
The Wall Street Journal comments Better Job Market Not Nearly Good Enough for the Fed.
Given Powell's repeated comments regarding the labor force, I certainly agree.
By my calculation, the labor force is 5.8 million below the number Powell seeks, and 4.2 million below the February 2020 pre-Covid labor force of 164.4 million.
The labor force is a moving target. It has been on a steady increase at the same average monthly rate since the beginning of 2016.
I believe Powell used a similar methodology or the charts would not align as much as they do.
Fed Hubris
Although I agree with Powell that the unemployment rate is hugely understated, I disagree strongly with the Fed's approach to deal with it.
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