The Euro and the smart money – And geopolitical tension alert [Video]
|The last few weeks have seen some delays in the release of Commitment of Traders data from the CFTC. This was due to a cyber-attack on certain platforms that feed this information in.
However, we are now nearly up-to-date and the data is giving us some very big clues.
Take a look at this chart.
The top chart is the price of the EUR.
The green line in the middle is our proprietary index. When this index reaches the top side of the chart we look for buying opportunities. Equally, when the lower line is reached again we need to look for selling opportunities. These are big picture indicators and they need to be confirmed by other factors.
The lower chart shows the activity of what we call “the commercials”. This is the smart money. Typically these people drive the markets. In commodities, they tend to be the farmers and end users. They know exactly what is happening. Typically, as prices rise they tend to sell and as prices fall they tend to buy.
The one very telling factor that we are seeing is that commercial selling has now reached the highest level within the history of the trading of this instrument. See white circled area.
What does this tell us?
Well, despite the move up that we are seeing, the longer term picture suggests that the bullishness may be short lived.
Seasonally, March tends to be a little bit more bullish. Hence, we can expect the up move to continue for a short while yet.
Most importantly, we are seeing significant mathematical time cycles from our Market Timing Report trading system. The cycles come to a peak roundabout the last week of March – next week. I do believe we will see a significant change in trend within this window.
Finally, the attached video tells of an important turning point in oil. We also reveal critical date window during which we are likely to see an escalation in geopolitical tension.
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