Technical analysis: Will the decline of copper quotes continue?
|Recommendation for Copper: Sell
Sell Stop: Below 4,25
Stop Loss: Above 4,85
RSI: Sell
MACD: Sell
MA(200): Neutral
Fractals: Sell
Parabolic SAR: Sell
Bollinger Bands: Neutral
Chart analysis
On the daily timeframe, COPPER: D1 broke down the support line of the ascending channel and went down from the triangle. A number of technical analysis indicators have generated signals for further decline. We are not ruling out a bearish movement if COPPER: D1 falls below the last low: 107. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limitation is possible above the all-time high, the last 5 high fractals, the upper Bollinger band and the Parabolic signal: 4.85. After opening a pending order, move the stop to the next fractal maximum following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a deal, can go to the four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (4.85) without activating the order (4.25), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental analysis
The Chinese authorities have reiterated that they will fight against rising commodity prices. Will the decline of COPPER quotes continue? In May, China's PPI reached a 12-year high of 9%. According to the country's leadership, this could pose a threat to economic growth. Investors do not exclude that in order to reduce world prices for non-ferrous metals, China may sell a small part of the state reserves of copper, aluminum and zinc. On June 16, economic data for May will be released in China, which may affect copper quotes: industrial production, retail sales and unemployment. The outlook is negative. Another bad news for copper may be the announcement by the Canadian company Ivanhoe Mines that the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in Congo has begun operations. In 2021, it is expected to produce 175-210 million pounds of copper and further increase production to 880 million pounds. Phase 3 of the mine will produce 1.2 billion pounds of copper per year. As a reminder, in addition to Kamoa-Kakula in the Congo, 2 more large copper mines are expected to be commissioned - Quellaveco in Peru and Quebrada Blanca in Chile. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts a 3.5% increase in global copper production this year and another 3.7% in 2022. In general, the quotes of commodities may be affected by the Fed meeting on June 16. This said, the risks are on the downside. External risks relate mainly to trends in the pandemic and progress in vaccination on a global level. Domestic risks centre on the debate about rewriting the constitution (a process likely to last until mid-2022) and the campaign for the presidential election in November 2021. These factors could depress the outlook for both domestic and international investment.
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