Technical Analysis – AUDUSD neutral to bullish; rally stalls around key 0.8000 level
|AUDUSD is neutral to bullish and is pivoting around the key psychological level at 0.8000 after hitting its highest level since May 2015 at 0.8124. The RSI and MACD oscillators are flat, indicating a loss in upside momentum. This suggests that the market has put in a short-term top after the subsequent slide from this September 8 high.
Sideways trading is expected in the near term within a range of 0.7934 and 0.8057. Strong support is expected at 0.7934 as this is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the uptrend from 0.7328 to 0.8124. A move below the current range would shift the focus to the downside.
Loss of support at the next Fibonacci level at 0.7818 would open up the downside for a move towards the 50% Fibonacci at 0.7724. Another leg lower would start reversing the recent uptrend and shift the bias to a more bearish one with scope to target the 0.7328 low.
There is little immediate risk of a downturn right now. A move further away from 0.8000 to the upside could see a re-test of the 0.8124 peak. Clearing this high would see a resumption of the uptrend for a push towards the next major high of 0.8162 from May 2015.
Overall, AUDUSD retains a technically bullish picture for the medium term. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are positively aligned after a bullish crossover on July 14. Additionally, both moving average lines are pointing up. Momentum oscillators (RSI and MACD) are in bullish territory although they are flat and suggesting a neutral bias for AUDUSD in the short-term.
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