A slowly fought trade war
|Market movers ahead
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In the euro area, we project HICP inflation in March will bounce back to 1.5% y/y supported by Easter effects.
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Several Fed members are due to speak in coming weeks, giving further insight into the future hiking pace.
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Average hourly earnings will again be in focus in the US labour market report for March. We expect PCE core inflation figures to remain unchanged at 1.5% y/y.
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In Japan, keep an eye on private consumption and labour market data.
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We expect Chinese Caixin PMI manufacturing to decline, driven by financial tightening measures.
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In Scandinavia, Danish business confidence and Norwegian house prices are due for release.
Global macro and market themes
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The trade war is being fought very slowly.
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The Fed lifted its rate path slightly due to Trumponomics.
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We are keeping an eye on the increasing Libor/OIS spread.
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The Brexit transition deal is not a game changer for EUR/GBP.
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