Stocks, job market and recession
|S&P 500 and Nasdaq kept on surging on NFPs, extension of gains called, and Russell 2000 notably lagged So much for rate cut odds, which I were doubting to be strengthened. Treasuries may look to be sideways, but are and increasingly will be under pressure in the weeks and months ahead – just wait for a bump in fresh issuace.
Also, the short end of the curve is a better hiding place (good enough if you have a laddered bond portolio of individual bonds) – the disconnect between the long and short end will grow wider, and of course the Treasury will rely on short-term issuance to keep costs udner control, which means frequent rollovers.
Bond vigilantes haven‘t seriously revolted, let alone just, plain revolted – nothing of that kind. Big Beautiful bill is in, and and there is no danger of yield curve control institution or recession – both the bet and assumption is that productivity and growth will help manage the national debt… and the other sign slash symptom thereof is the ominously declining dollar (nowhere near my target) – it‘s great that it would help with retyurning (manufacturing) jobs to USA, but diminished value of every dollar held to reckon with… one of my most essential calls earlier in the year.
Let‘s dive into risk taking, equities and real assets analysis as per Sunday‘s video. Key questions to find an answer to, are – is the rally broadening out? Should we ignore government hiring saving NFPs headline? Can we live with the job market‘s high job openings, rising continuing claims, but stable initial claims and a bit sluggish hourly earnings? No recession risk still?
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