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Analysis

Stock markets lower and Oil higher as markets react to war

Market reaction to war contained for now

While we have seen a significant surge in oil prices since markets opened last night, the gains appear contained for now as we wait to see if shipping through Hormuz can continue at lower levels or will be blocked entirely. Oil and gas infrastructure in the region has not yet been extensively targeted, keeping oil well south of the $100 barrel range that many expected as a result of the weekend.

It is a similar story in stock markets. There have been losses, but investors have had one eye on the possibility of war for weeks. But with Trump saying the campaign could run for four weeks, there is plenty of scope for more downside should the conflict widen to encompass oil and gas infrastructure, a move that would likely see oil make further progress towards three figures.

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