Preview of the US Existing Home Sales
|Purpose
Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction.
Key highlights
- The U.S. housing market outlook for July 2025 reflects a complex landscape shaped by high mortgage rates, rising inventory, moderating home price growth, and regional variations.
- 30-year fixed mortgage rates are hovering around 6.7–7.0% as of early July 2025, up from 6.2% in September 2024 but below the 7.79% peak in October 2023.
- Active listings reached a post-pandemic peak of over 1 million in June 2025, up 29% YoY, with 826,000 single-family homes unsold by mid-June. New listings are outpacing sales, with 34% more sellers than buyers in May, creating a 500,000-home surplus
- High rates and prices have suppressed demand, with home sales remaining below 6 million annually. Existing home sales rose 2% YoY in January 2025, marking four consecutive months of gains, but overall activity remains muted.
- President Donald Trump on Wednesday said the administration is weighing whether to exempt home sales from capital-gains taxes. That could loosen a constricted housing market, according to the bill the president was referencing.
US interest rate probabilities
- US IR probabilities show about 95.30% and 41.3% no rate change in July and September, respectively.
- The market is looking at 56.1% and 48.5% rate cut in September or October.
Technical analysis perspective
US existing Home Sales
- US existing home sales dropped to the lowest in October 2023 to 3.85 million before moving higher to 4.31 million in February 2024.
- Since October 2023 to date existing home sales have been moving along a rising trendline; holding this month around 3.93 million.
- Existing home sales peaked around 4.31 -4.27 million since October 2023.
- The number of existing homes sale is gradually going to grow with a possibility that we may see flat to a slightly higher sale in June 2025.
US new Home Sales
US new home sales are testing a rising trendline at 614 K. A rise to 665 K is likely above 614 k support.
US 30Y mortgage rate
US 30Y mortgage rates are going to remain between 6.90 to 6.60 hovering in a descending triangle like pattern.
Such a pattern favors a downside breakout of 6.60 support targeting 5.50 in the coming months.
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