Peace through strength
|I usually have a lot to say about people in leadership positions. While I often call President Trump out in these letters, I believe he has an ability to do things that no other world leader is capable of. That power cuts both ways, which can be quite frightening. My personal opinion is that President Trump is on the right side of history and stepped up and delivered when it counted most. Now is not a time for complacency and too much celebration; there is a lot of hard work and danger still ahead: militarily, geopolitically, and economically. Thank you, President Trump!
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Given the fact that one of the main oil shipping lanes responsible for 20% plus of world supply is closed, there is a real chance for things to break.
For those of you who don’t remember, crude oil futures traded at -$37 in 2020. That truly is remarkable. In this monthly chart you can see in the bottom pane that oil is up 24% for the month, which, looked at next to previous volatile periods, looks pretty contained. My data doesn’t go back to the 70s, a somewhat comparable period.
The expectation was for oil to spike at the open today well above $80. It is currently trading at $75, up 1.6% as I write. The next chart shows daily price movements in oil. This can be an extremely volatile commodity to trade.
On April 20, 2020, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures dropped by "almost 300%" to trade at around negative $37 per barrel. It was the May 2020 futures contract falling from positive territory (around $18) to negative $37.63 per barrel at settlement.
To me this proves that there is no such thing as impossible in financial markets. Always expect the unexpected.
S2N observations
Why are all the coffee shops I am frequenting increasing their prices?
I don’t usually comment on individual stocks, but the recent price weakness on McDonald’s caught my eye. I don’t know what to make of this, but perhaps it is the modern-day canary in the economy’s coal mine.
According to the WSJ, the Chinese property market has lost $18 trillion since 2021, surpassing the TOTAL losses suffered by the U.S. during the Global Financial Crisis.
S2N screener alert
The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, despite ongoing wars on multiple fronts, traded yesterday at an all-time high (ATH), up 7.5% on the day.
Platinum has had its 3rd largest up month move as measured by Z-Score.
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