November employment report: A tale of two surveys
|Summary
Nonfarm payrolls rose a disappointing 210K in November, with softness spread throughout a number of industries. Average hourly earnings growth also cooled to 0.3% over the month. Yet the household survey indicated that the labor market continues to rapidly tighten. The unemployment rate tumbled to 4.2% even as the labor force participation rate rose and finally broke out of its post-pandemic range. The FOMC will clearly be discussing a faster taper at its upcoming December 15 meeting, but this morning's payroll number and lighter read on average hourly earnings growth gives the Committee an out to perhaps punt to its January meeting.
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