NFP propels easter Monday [Video]
|US Dollar: Dec '20 USD Up at 92.715.
Energies: Apr'21 Crude is Up at 60.19.
Financials: The June '21 30 year bond is Up 6 ticks and trading at 155.25.
Indices: The Mar'21 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 36 ticks Lower and trading at 4058.75.
Gold: The June'21 Gold contract is trading Up at 1731.90. Gold is 31 ticks Higher than its close.
Initial Conclusion
This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Up+ and Crude is Up+ which is not normal and the 30 year Bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Higher which is correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia is trading Mixed at the present time. Currently all of Europe is trading Higher.
Possible challenges to traders Today
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JOLTS Job Openings is out at 10 AM EST. This is Major.
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IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism - tentative. This is Major.
Bias
Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral bias as we didn't see much evidence for market correlation yesterday morning. The markets however had other ideas as the Dow soared by 374 points and the other indices gained ground as well. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the Downside.
Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Commentary
Yesterday we suggested that the markets moved Higher due to good job numbers reported on Friday even though the markets themselves were closed. Apparently that transmitted into yesterday's session as the markets reopened after the Easter Holiday. The Dow gained 374 points and closed at 33,527. The other indices gained ground as well. Today we have the Jolts Job Openings which is major and will dovetail nicely considering Friday's positive reports.
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