Morning briefing: The Euro continue to hold the respective ranges of 97.00-99.00
|The Dollar Index, Euro and the EURINR continue to hold the respective ranges of 97-99, 1.1750-1.1500 and 103.00-101.50. EURJPY and USDJPY need to fall below 171 and 147 to extend the fall to 170-169 and 145 as well. USDCNY slipped below 7.14 and can test the deeper support at 7.12 before bouncing back later. Aussie and Pound needs to decisively breach the resistance at 0.655 and 1.3530 respectively to bring higher levels into picture. If the USDINR holds above 87.50, it can attempt to rise back towards 87.75-88.00 again. IN GDP, US Personal Income & US PCE Data releases are scheduled today.
The US Treasury yields are coming close to their key support. Failure to sustain above their support can drag them down further in the coming days. The US PCE data release today can be the key in deciding that. A soft PCE number can drag the yields lower as it will strengthen the case for rate cuts. The German yields are coming down to test their support as expected. They have to bounce back from the support to keep the chances alive of the rise and avoid more fall. The 10Yr GoI has come down sharply. The resistance is holding well as expected. The yield can fall more.
The Dow Jones could head towards 46000-47000 while above support near 44500. The Dax can test 23500 initially before bouncing back higher towards 24500 in the medium term. Nifty is likely to continue declining towards 24400-24200. Nikkei too can dip to 42500-42300 while Shanghai can rise to resistance near 4000 before declining towards 3700.
Crude oil settled higher on short covering but as long as Brent faces resistance near $68.00/$68.50 and WTI near $64.50, the broader view remains bearish towards $67.00–$65.00 and $62.00–$60.00 respectively. Gold looks firm above $3,450 with scope to rise towards $3,500–$3,550, Silver is capped near $40.00 and may dip to $39.00–$38.50 before resuming its uptrend towards $40.50–$41.00, Copper has broken above $4.50 and could extend gains to $4.60–$4.65, while Natural Gas has cleared resistance and is likely to head towards $3.10–$3.20 in the near term.
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