Morning briefing: EUR/USD is likely to trade within the 1.1700-1.1800 range
|The Dollar Index is facing resistance near 98.50, and while below this level, the downside targets of 97.50-97.00 remain open. EURUSD is likely to trade within the 1.17-1.18 range. EURINR has scope to rebound toward 107 as long as it holds above 105.50. EURJPY has moved above 182, and if sustained, can test 184 in the near term. USDJPY is expected to remain range-bound between 154 and 158 for some time. USDCNY can extend the decline toward 7.025 or even 7.00 while below 7.045. AUDUSD may fall toward 0.655–0.650 while below 0.66. GBPUSD can consolidate within the 1.330-1.345 region before a breakout occurs. USDINR is trading near 90.30 region on the NDF. A range of 90-91 is expected to hold for a while. BOE & ECB meeting, US CPI, US Philifed Index & US TICS are some of the important events scheduled for the day.
The US Treasury yields remain lower. A strong from here breaking above their resistance is needed to move higher and avoid a fall. The recent price action indicates that a fall is more likely. The German yields have moved up. The bullish view is intact. The yields can rise more in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI remains volatile around its resistance. The immediate outlook remains mixed. A sustained rise above the immediate resistance is needed to see more rise.
The Dow and DAX seem to be declining and could have chances of breaking below 47500 and 23500 to taregt lower levels of 47000-46000 and 23000 respectively. Nifty is likely to rebound from 25600 and bounce back towars 26000 or higher. Nikkei needs to hold above 49000 else can drag itself down to 48000-47000. Shanghai continues trade within the 3800-3950 region.
Crude prices have bounced slightly, but the overall bias remains bearish with downside risks towards $57–$55 (Brent) and $52–$50 (WTI). Gold needs a sustained break above $4400 to rise towards $4450–$4500. Silver has made a fresh high and can extend gains towards $68. Copper is likely to stay range-bound between $5.6 and $5.3. Natural gas remains bearish towards $3.8–$3.6 while below $4.2.
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