Morning briefing: EUR/USD can test 1.1800 in the near term before pausing
|The Dollar Index and EURUSD can test 97.50–97.00 and 1.1800 respectively in the near term before pausing. EURINR has tested 106 and is hovering just below it; we need to watch whether this resistance holds. EURJPY can extend higher towards 184–185 before topping out. USDJPY continues to trade within the 154–158 range. USDCNY may test support at 7.05 or even 7.04 before staging a rebound. AUDUSD must sustain above 0.665 to open a move towards 0.67–0.68. GBPUSD has room to test 1.3450–1.3500 in the coming sessions. USDINR surged to 90.4825 before easing slightly. A decisive break above 90.50 is required to bring higher levels into focus; failure to clear it could push the pair lower towards 90.00–89.75. India’s CPI data is scheduled for release today.
The US Treasury yields have risen back well. Need to see if they manage to gain strength to break their resistance. Only then the fall will be avoided, and a further rise is possible. The German Yields remain stable. Outlook remains positive. The yields can rise more. The 10Yr GoI has failed to get a strong follow-through rise and has come down. Failure to rise back immediately can put it back into the previous range.
The Dow can rise towards 49000 from where a pullback is possible while the DAX looks bullish towards 24500. Nifty can target 26000 or higher again while above 25800. Nikkei tested 51127 but has dipped back below 51000. Unless a sustained break past 51000 is seen, the index may stay sideways between 51000-48000. Shanghai continues trade within the 3800-3950 region.
Crude prices remains under pressure with Brent sliding towards $60 and WTI aiming for $56. Gold is trying to break past $4300 with room to advance toward $4400-4500. Silver is pushing higher towards $65-66 as momentum stays strong. Copper has bounced well and can rise further towards $5.55-5.60. Natural Gas has fallen more than expected on warmer US weather signals and could fall towards $4.0-3.8 in the near term.
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