Middle East global economic impact: Scenario analysis
|Summary
Tensions between Israel and Iran escalated sharply on June 13. Tensions spilled over to U.S. intervention with U.S. military targeting three of Iran’s nuclear facilities. Last night, a tentative and fragile ceasefire was agreed to between Israel and Iran. While new confrontation marked a major geopolitical flashpoint in the Middle East and globally, we do not expect any global economic disruptions from the conflict and maintain our view that global growth prospects are improving. Our base case scenario continues to be global economic growth 2.7% for 2025, although alternative geopolitical scenarios could have modest effects on our global GDP forecast.
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